← Ramin Karimi
Ramin Karimi, Campaign Director Ramin Karimi, Campaign Director
The process and the price

It all starts with one principle.

One arc, carried all the way
to the market, is what moves
a number.One arc, carried all the way to the market, is what moves a number.

Everything below comes out of that line. One idea. One event the machine learns on. Every change tracked, so what moved the number is knowable. The same principle, applied to a different part of the work each time.

I direct the arc. ORCAS builds all of it.

Act two · the shape of six months

It all starts with the map and the time frame. Six months. Today to A to B.

THE NORMAL SWING THE TARGET TODAY A THE READING STARTS B THE NORMAL SWING THE TARGET TODAY A B THE READING STARTS
Model · the shape, not your numbers
Today
The number you have. Counted, blended, not caused, and not on the cost scale. Real, and impossible to move on purpose.
Today to A
The build. Everything on this page gets studied, decided, made and wired inside this stretch. Nothing is readable in it, and that is in the proposal before any money moves.
Point A
Everything live, the learning done, the gauge reading: the one readout that shows what a new customer costs against the line it has to clear. The eyes open, on the right lens. A is dated in your proposal. Results start at the launch. The reading starts at A. Two different things, and I say them as two different things.
A to B
The run. One change a month. Each cohort read on its own, never blended into the last one.
Point B
Month six. The number read against the target line. A direction arrived at, not a point to hit.
The fuel
Authorised at A. Runs to B. Paid to Meta on your own card, and it never passes through me.
Next · what I read before I build
Act three · month one, the first two weeks

I read two things before I build anything.

What your business already says to the market, and what that already costs. Then what the market says back. Both are finished before one piece of creative exists. An idea built on half of that is a guess with money behind it.

WHAT THE BUSINESS SAYS NOW WHAT THE MARKET SAYS BACK BOTH CLEAR BEFORE ONE IDEA EXISTS THE ARC WHAT YOU SAY NOW WHAT THEY SAY BACK BOTH CLEAR BEFORE ONE IDEA EXISTS THE ARC

One · the account, as it stands

  • Whose account it is, how old it is, and what it has been optimising on since the day it was opened.
  • The exclusions, first, on every account, no exceptions. Accounts often prospect straight into their own buyers without anybody noticing, and it never shows on a dashboard.
  • The placements, against what the platform still supports this month. A retired placement named in a live ad set does not warn. It fails.
  • The special category declarations. Housing, employment, financial products and social issues have to declare their audience setting explicitly, and a missed declaration fails on creation rather than warning.
  • Everything currently running, screenshotted before a single change is made.
  • What stays live. Existing winners keep running at their current spend on their existing event until the launch replaces them. Nothing is deleted, and no reading is claimed off that window.

Two · your numbers, verified against your words

  • The last 50 new customers, and what each one paid first.
  • What it cost to deliver each of those 50.
  • Refunds, reductions and no-shows across the last three months.
  • Repeat and lifetime, out of the order history rather than out of memory.
  • The profit you keep. Your number, in your words.
  • The sales cycle, from the last 10 closed: first contact to money in the bank.
  • Capacity. How many more next month before something breaks.
  • The three thinnest months of last year, and what cash looked like inside them.
  • Annual gross profit after delivery labour.
  • New against returning, last month, out of the server rather than the platform.
  • Branded search today. Sixteen months pulled out of Search Console at handover, before the window closes, with direct traffic beside it.

Never estimate what can be counted. A number nobody has becomes a model with a test date, labelled a model, and the first real reading replaces it. Never a blank, and never a guess dressed up as a reading.

Three · the market, in a fixed order

  • Prices. Where the crowd sits, where the top sits, and the gap nobody is standing in.
  • The category’s entire advertising. The ad libraries are public. Every competitor’s live creative, read as one body, tells you what the whole category currently believes.
  • Buyers’ own words. Reviews, forums, comments, the support inbox. The words themselves, not the sentiment.
  • Your own files. The answer is often already in the building: an unused video, a dormant credit, a survey line nobody read.

Four · the rulebook

  • What the platform allows. Special categories, restricted verticals, and what survives in each. In health no lower funnel standard events survive, so the events get built neutral and no patient data ever leaves your server.
  • What the profession allows. Bar rules, licensing bodies, professional advertising codes, and the written consents a joint arc needs.
  • What privacy allows. The consent line on every form, and the messaging rules in every jurisdiction you contact people in.
  • One page, yours, written once. Every piece passes it before it is made, not after it is rejected.
Next · the number everything after is judged against
Act four · the numbers that decide everything after

The most a new customer may cost.

The target comes out of your own gross profit, before anything runs. Dated, and never argued with afterwards. It sits on every version of your map for the whole six months.

WHAT A NEW CUSTOMER PAYS YOU FIRST LESS REFUNDS AND REDUCTIONS LESS WHAT IT COSTS YOU TO DELIVER DELIVERY LESS THE PROFIT YOU KEEP THE TARGET
Model · the shape of the subtraction

The target

The most a new customer may cost you.

Type your own numbers in
$
$
%
$
The target
$222
Gross profit per customer $312 · the profit you keep $90

The fuel

What it costs to find out, paid to Meta on your card.

Type your own numbers in
$
The fuel, monthly
$21,600
One ad set measuring $10,800 · two ad sets hunting $21,600
Fuel across six months $129,600
Fee $8,000 a month Fee plus fuel $29,600 a month Six months, all in $177,600

Here is the fuel arithmetic, so you can run it yourself.

Three lines. No formula I keep to myself, and nothing in it you cannot check against your own account tonight.

Step one
How many events a month
50 a week × 52 weeks ÷ 12 months = 216 events
Step two
What one ad set costs a month
216 × your cost per optimised event
Step three
What the arc costs a month
That number × the ad sets running. One measures. Two hunts.
Why 216Model
An ad set needs enough optimised events inside a rolling seven days for the machine to stop guessing. Meta’s guidance is generally up to 50 of them per ad set, and Meta says the number actually needed varies with the ad set and with the market at the time. A guideline, never a gate. Fifty a week, annualised and divided across the months, gives the multiplier.
The new number
The fuel is worked on the cost of the new event, not the one running now. Reported cost rises when the objective switches, because returning customers are the easiest people on earth to convert and taking them out of the training label makes the dashboard look worse while the business gets better. I say that in writing before it happens, not after.
Measuring and hunting
One ad set is what it costs to measure. Two is what it costs to hunt. I quote both, always, so the number you authorise is a decision rather than a surprise.
Days to run
Fuel authorised divided by daily spend, on every deck from the launch. If the fuel runs out before the reading exists, the reading is invalid, and that is known on day one rather than discovered in month four.
Affordability
One rule decides whether you can afford the fee plus the fuel at all. It runs on annual gross profit after delivery labour and on your three thinnest months, and it is applied in the size-up before anything is signed. For a lot of good businesses the answer is no, and that gets said on the call rather than discovered in month two.

One pot of money, split two ways.

The whole argument for one arc, drawn. The same month of fuel, on the same scale, twice.

THE SAME MONTH OF FUEL, BOTH SIDES ENOUGH TO LEARN ON SPLIT TWELVE WAYS SPLIT TWO WAYS NOT ONE OF THEM REACHES THE LINE BOTH OF THEM DO

Then the offer gets the same arithmetic.

A business can have a perfect target, a perfect idea and a perfect machine, and still be selling a thing at a number that cannot work. So the offer is read before the idea, on purpose, while the arithmetic is still on the table and nobody is attached to anything yet.

THE TARGET THE OFFER TODAY OVER THE LINE CONSTRUCTION TWO AT THE LINE, NO ROOM CONSTRUCTION THREE CLEARS IT WITH ROOM WHAT A NEW CUSTOMER MAY COST THE TARGET THE OFFER TODAY OVER THE LINE CONSTRUCTION TWO AT THE LINE, NO ROOM CONSTRUCTION THREE CLEARS IT WITH ROOM
Model · three constructions, one line to clear
Question one
What is the thing a new customer buys first, and what does it cost them.
Question two
What would have to be true for that first purchase to clear the target with room.
Question three
What is the cheapest change to the offer that makes that true.
What you get
Two or three offer constructions, each with its own arithmetic against the target at the payback window. A different entry product, a different price point, a deposit or a split, a bundle that moves the first order, a risk reversal that moves the conversion rate. One recommended. The others killed in writing.
Your call
Here you see the number that would change everything, and then decide. If the offer does not move, the arc runs against the offer that exists, and that goes on the map with a date.

A target nobody argues with is worth more than a forecast everybody likes.

Next · the idea, built against a target that already exists
Act five · month one into month two

Now the arc gets built, against a target that already exists.

Three situations come out of the market read, each with its own target, so the choice gets made with all three visible. Two are killed in writing the same day, with the reason and the date. One is owned, named, and said the same way for longer than feels comfortable.

The volume
New work every week, built as genuinely distinct concepts with several executions each. Never a monthly batch. How much depends on the fuel and the market, and the count never changes the fee.
The mix
Roughly half statics and moving stills, half video. The evidence does not show video winning on its own, and anybody insisting it must all be video at volume is selling video production.
The first two seconds
Branding built into the opening of the piece, never dropped on top as an overlay. A plain logo on the front measures worse than nothing, because people recognise the brand and scroll.
One arc, many executions
Variety is good and the machine wants it, as long as all of it sits inside one arc. Twelve pieces serving one arc is a healthy account. Twelve serving twelve ideas is twelve accounts pretending to be one. Meta’s own guidance points at genuinely different creative rather than fifteen recolours of one template, and that is satisfied at the concept level while the message stays one message.
The hero
Never picked in advance. Run the variety, let the market pick, then put engagement behind what earned it so the proof stacks on one piece rather than starting from zero on a thousand. Zero does not read as neutral. It reads as nobody wanted this.
The hit rateModel
About 5 out of every 100 pieces are real winners. I say that in month one so month three is not a shock, and I plan the production against it rather than against hope.
Testing, honestly
Under one consolidated campaign the platform allocates the money deliberately rather than randomly, so differences between pieces are confounded by the allocator itself. Clean creative testing at this spend level is unaffordable, not dead. Anybody promising it is overselling. What is real: which piece the machine chose to spend on, and why.
The pages
One per room the idea has, and more than one where they are worth testing against each other. The second act of the ad, not a landing page. Real original content, because a thin page that exists only to bounce people onward sits close to what the platform restricts.
The emails
Three of them, written into the arc. Never a welcome sequence.
The order
Talk it through, I state exactly what is needed, you supply the real assets, then it is made. Never the other way round. Nothing is built on an assumption about what you have.
100 PIECES 5 REAL WINNERS
Model · the hit rate I plan the production against

The variety is for the machine. The message is for the market.

Next · what happens between a message and a person
Act six · what happens between a message and a person

The machine, by name, end to end.

Everything below is Meta’s own published architecture, with Meta’s own names and dates on it. It is here because every decision in the rest of this page is made against it, and because if you are paying for an arc you should be able to see the thing it is aimed at.

Meta’s published pipeline · the counts are illustrative

It runs on two clocks.

Almost nobody draws this part, and it decides what you can and cannot influence. Most of the thinking about a person finishes long before your ad is in a race for them.

Offline
Before the request exists
GEM trains on everything and teaches the student models. Sequence learning reads a person’s long history. LLaTTE turns that history into a cached vector, 2,048 values wide, and files it. All of it is finished and sitting there before anyone opens the app.
Online
The request arrives
Retrieval narrows the pool. Ranking scores what survives against the cached vector. The auction picks a winner. Your creative and your bid enter here, and nothing else of yours does. The whole race is over before the screen has finished drawing.

The parts, in Meta’s own words.

Andromeda2 December 2024
Retrieval. It narrows, in Meta’s words, “tens of millions of ad candidates into a few thousand relevant ad candidates.” The only stage of the pipeline with published candidate counts on both ends. It runs on NVIDIA Grace Hopper Superchips. Meta’s published figures for it: 8 percent better ads quality on selected segments, 6 percent better recall, and 10,000 times the model capacity.
GEM10 November 2025
The teacher. It trains on everything the system sees and passes what it learns down to hundreds of smaller models that actually face the request, through knowledge distillation, representation learning and parameter sharing. Meta’s own words for those models are “student models,” and Meta calls GEM “the central brain.” Published: 5 percent more ad conversions on Instagram, 3 percent on Facebook Feed, and training compute scaled 4 times in twelve months.
Sequence learningNovember 2024, rebuilt August 2026
It reads a person’s behaviour as an ordered history rather than a bag of attributes, and builds a representation of them out of it. Meta calls it a paradigm shift for personalized ads recommendations and places it under GEM, not under Lattice. Published in August 2026: 6 percent conversion lift on Instagram, 3 percent on Facebook, 3.5 percent more ad clicks. Which is why two people with identical demographics get completely different ads.
LLaTTEJanuary 2026
The split that makes all of that affordable. Running a transformer over thousands of events at auction time is impossible, so an upstream model reads the history offline and publishes a cached vector of the person, 2,048 values wide, off roughly 400 events per source. It costs more than 45 times the online model’s sequence work, it accounts for about 30 percent of the online ranking model’s work, and it is already finished before the request arrives. The architecture handles histories of 500 to 5,000 events, across trillions of requests a day.
Lattice11 May 2023
One high capacity prediction architecture in place of hundreds of smaller independent models, consolidating what used to be separate systems per objective and per surface. Meta’s description: “a new model architecture that learns to predict an ad’s performance across a variety of datasets and optimization goals.” Considerably older than most of the advice written about it, and the ad quality figure Meta published alongside it is about 8 percent.
Adaptive ranking31 March 2026
Serving infrastructure. It replaces one size fits all inference with intelligent request routing, so a high intent request gets the expensive model and a cheap one does not. It decides how much computation a request is worth, which is a different question from which ad suits which person.
The auctionJanuary 2023
Three components decide it, in Meta’s own sentence: “There are three key components of total value: the advertiser bid, the estimated action rate, and ad quality.” The bid is multiplied by the estimated action rate, ad quality is taken into account, and the highest total value is displayed. Two of those three are yours.
PacingMarketing API
Standard pacing enters your ad into “every relevant auction” and scales your bid across the day to spend smoothly. Which changes the whole diagnosis: an ad set that will not spend is not being held back from opportunities, it is entering them and losing them. The question is never why Meta will not show the ad. It is why the effective bid is uncompetitive.

Three places you touch it. That is all of them.

One
The creative
The machine reads it. In Meta’s own words about the content features it reads out of your images and copy: “not a marginal add-on but a prerequisite for effective scaling.” Thin work is not a taste problem. It is a prediction problem, at every auction.
Two
The bid
One of the three components of total value, and the only one you set directly. Which is why structure and pacing are decisions rather than settings, and why an ad set that will not spend gets diagnosed as a bid problem instead of a mystery.
Three
The conversion event
What the machine is trained to go and find. It cannot read your campaign arc. It reads this. When the two disagree, the event wins. Which is the entire reason the next act exists.

The heavy thinking about who a person is has already finished before any advertiser competes for them. Your creative, your bid and your event are what enter. Every other lever in the account is a way of arranging those three.

Next · the event, and who it sends the machine to find
Act seven · month one, day two

The event the machine learns on decides who it goes and finds.

Optimise on a plain purchase and the highest probability people on earth are the ones who already bought from you. They know the brand, their card is saved, their history is visible. Reported cost falls and the new customer count stays exactly where it was. That is the retargeting trap running inside broad prospecting, driven by the training label rather than by where the money went, and it never shows up on a dashboard.

THE BROWSER YOUR SERVER THE ONLY PLACE THAT KNOWS WHO IS NEW PIXEL CONVERSIONS API ONE EVENT ID COUNTED ONCE BACK INTO THE MACHINE IT LEARNS ON THIS OUT TO THE GAUGE YOU READ THIS THE BROWSER YOUR SERVER PIXEL CONVERSIONS API THE ONLY PLACE THAT KNOWS WHO IS NEW ONE EVENT ID COUNTED ONCE BACK INTO THE MACHINE IT LEARNS ON THIS OUT TO THE GAUGE YOU READ THIS
One event, sent twice, counted once
One pixel
Never two. One schema and one naming convention across every page, so the data can be read back later rather than decoded.
The Conversions API
The same events sent again from your server, so they survive ad blockers, browser restrictions and everything else that has eaten browser side measurement since 2021. On every page, not just checkout.
Deduplication
The browser event and the server event carry the same event id, so one customer counts once. Without it every sale counts twice, and every number you decide off is wrong in the same direction.
Match quality
Every identifier you legitimately hold goes with the event, hashed where Meta requires it: email, phone, name, city, state, postcode, country, your own customer id, the click id, the browser id. Low match quality means Meta cannot connect a sale back to the person who saw the ad, so the reading under-reports and you decide off a broken figure.
The first-time-buyer event
The centre of the whole thing. Fired from your server, after the order has been checked against your own customer history. The browser has no idea whether somebody has bought before. Only your database does. An existing customer can never produce a positive label on that event, so the model learns to deprioritise them from data rather than from a blocklist you have to maintain.
Why not an exclusion
Every audience control the platform ships answers who. None of them change what the model is trained to predict. Exclusions also keep disappearing from the product. A training label is not a control that can be taken away.
Value on the event
First order gross profit, or predicted lifetime value, sent with it. Then the machine is bidding on what a customer is worth rather than on how likely they are to click, which is as close as the objective gets to your P and L.
The two honest costs
Two differently named events do not deduplicate against each other, so reported purchases will not equal orders. And a new event takes one of the eight event slots, so the priority order gets re-ranked deliberately. Both are said before the build, not discovered after it.
The volume gateModel
Below roughly $13,000 to $22,000 a month in fuel there is not enough new customer volume for the machine to learn on that event, so it gets measured on rather than optimised on, and the value goes on the standard event instead. Measuring has no volume requirement. Optimising does.
Lead and case work
The raw enquiry, the qualified lead fired out of the CRM carrying the original id so it stitches back to the ad that caused it, and the closed customer sent with its value even when it lands weeks later. Optimise on the deepest event that has volume. Measure on the deepest event regardless.
Attribution, 2026
The default is 7 day click-through, 1 day engage-through, 1 day view-through. The 7 day and 28 day view windows were removed on 12 January 2026. Click-through was redefined in March 2026 to link clicks only, with everything else moved into engage-through, which on its own made reported conversions drop with nothing about the work having changed. I pre-empt that in writing rather than explain it after somebody panics.
Incremental attribution
It looks like a reporting setting and it is an optimisation control. It changes who Meta goes and finds, and choosing it locks your attribution windows. It never gets switched mid-arc to make a chart look better.
The naming
One convention on every ad, every link and every destination, so the reports read the same names your CRM uses and nobody has to reconcile two vocabularies at month three.
The memory line
Search Console and analytics connected, sixteen months of branded search pulled at handover before the window closes, direct traffic beside it. Meta ages its own data out at 13 months, so it gets exported monthly. Read September 2026.
Messaging registration
Before a single automated text can legally leave, the messaging has to be registered with the carriers. Three to seven business days. It goes in the wiring week rather than being discovered the day the desk goes live.
The time it takes
About a day of development work, once, spread across the first two weeks. It starts on day two because it depends on your stack rather than on my thinking, and starting it early buys three to four weeks of readable arc for nothing.
EIGHT SLOTS, RANKED. ADDING ONE RE-RANKS THE REST. FIRST-TIME BUYER PURCHASE QUALIFIED LEAD LEAD INITIATE CHECKOUT ADD TO CART VIEW CONTENT PAGE VIEW HIGHEST AT THE TOP EIGHT SLOTS, RANKED. ADDING ONE RE-RANKS THE REST. FIRST-TIME BUYER PURCHASE QUALIFIED LEAD LEAD INITIATE CHECKOUT ADD TO CART VIEW CONTENT PAGE VIEW HIGHEST AT THE TOP

A perfectly wired account optimising on the wrong event is a machine seeing in 4K and still hunting people who already bought from you.

Next · who actually does it
Ramin Karimi at work Ramin Karimi at work
Act eight · who does it

One director, one pod, and nothing that needs you to manage it.

You are hiring judgment, and judgment does not scale by adding account managers. Everything that is not a decision gets assembled behind me by people who receive briefs rather than conversations.

Me
Every judgment. The size-up. The read. The target. The offer constructions. The roads and the two kills. The idea. The brand call. Both gate conversations. The re-brief at month six. If a decision can be argued about, it is mine.
The assembly
Everything that is not judgment and is not my face. The client file, the stage decks, the stage emails, the map, the drift register, the market digs handed to me with the choice still open, the research and its grading, the pages. Any surface that needs you to maintain it was designed wrong.
Editor and designer
Per batch, on the weekly creative cadence. They receive briefs, not conversations, so the work arrives shaped rather than interpreted.
Development and analysis
The pixel, the Conversions API, the first-time-buyer event, the map’s wiring. About a day per client, once, in week one.
The desk
Automation first on everything that comes back, every hour. On leads: the reply inside the minute, the qualifying questions, the booking link, the entry in your CRM. On orders: the question answered before the cart is abandoned, the note after it ships, the return handled before it becomes a review. A person follows the automation and never leads it. Every message carries your business name and an opt out, opt outs are honoured the same minute, and contact hours follow the customer’s own time zone.
The pages talk back
Anybody who reads a page and asks something gets an answer the same hour, in the same voice as the piece that sent them. A page that takes a question and does nothing with it costs you the sale twice.
Closers
The desk hands a qualified lead to a named person by a named route inside a set time, and the log is visible to you. The response time sits in the readout next to the cost per new customer, from day one.
The training leads
The first 100 to 150 leads are training for a brand new event. That is said up front and counted down on the map, never quietly absorbed into a number.
The rule
If it is not judgment or my face, it is not my job. The first week I spend more than five hours on hands work, that job gets a person.
Next · live, and then deliberately boring
Act nine · months two to six

Live, and then deliberately boring.

The launch runs one or two ad sets, broad, on the platform’s own default structure. Highest volume, no cap, through the learning window and the build window. Support channels feed Meta rather than splitting from it. And before the first number exists, I tell you how big a weekly move has to be before it means anything at all.

The week
One line, every Monday, drawn with the normal swing under it. Never a bare number.
Decides nothing
The month
One change. One reason. One date. Never twice in a month.
The valve
The cohort
The loop closes when a reading actually exists, not when the calendar says it should.
The turn
PLUS 40 PERCENT THE TARGET MINUS 22 PERCENT INSIDE THE BAND, NOTHING HAPPENS PLUS 40 PERCENT THE TARGET MINUS 22 PERCENT INSIDE THE BAND, NOTHING HAPPENS
Model · computed from your volume before anything runs
The normal swingModel
Computed from your volume before anything runs, and asymmetric, because cost misbehaves upward more than downward. At around 50 events a week it is roughly minus 22 percent to plus 40 percent. Inside the swing nothing happens, and doing nothing is the correct action.
The random walk
Adjusting toward wherever the last result landed is a random walk, and it ruins good accounts with activity. It never gets run here.
The next dollar
Up in steps of about 20 percent, held through the learning window, and the new cohort read on its own rather than blended into the old one. The average still looks fine while the new dollars lose money. Per unit is what decides.
Where it stops
When the marginal number goes over the target, or capacity is full, or frequency starts climbing with the spend. Frequency climbing with spend is saturation at this idea, and the answer to that is the next arc, not more fuel.
Capacity
Set in week one, in your words: cases you can carry, patients you can see, orders you can ship. Scaling never passes that line. Demand you cannot deliver is a complaint machine and a refund line.
The drift register
Every dated platform change that touches your account, with a screenshot. Not optional, and the thing that lets you trust a reading when a number moves for a reason that is not mine.
A valid reading
Three conditions, all required: the learning window held, the sales cycle passed, twelve or more conversions in the cohort. An invalid reading is reported as not yet. Never as a pass.
Counted, not caused
The number is counted, and counted only where the return actually lives, on your own server. Only a holdout test says what was caused, and a holdout is agreed at the start or not at all. It is never introduced at month two to rescue a chart.
Why that line is hardProven
Attribution says what happened next to the ads. A holdout says what happened because of them, and those are two different questions. A published comparison of the two ran on Meta’s own data, across fifteen campaigns and roughly 500 million user observations, with randomised tests as the ground truth. It found the usual ways of estimating lift mostly overstate it. So the number on your map is counted. Caused is a word I only use behind a test.
The map
Every month: the target line, the actual line, the memory line, days to run, capacity used, every change dated, and the original target on every single version. If I disappeared, the map is the handover. That is the test of whether it was ever good enough.
The mapMonth four · model
COST PER NEW CUSTOMER THE TARGET MEMORY 01 02 03 EVERY CHANGE, ONE A MONTH, DATED READ, MONTH FOUR TODAY A B COST PER NEW CUSTOMER THE TARGET MEMORY 01 02 03 TODAY B A EVERY CHANGE, ONE A MONTH, DATED
Days to run71
Capacity used62%
Changes, all dated3
Original targetUnchanged

That is the artefact. One page, every month, rendered from your own file, with the original target on every version of it. If I disappeared, it is the handover.

WHAT HAPPENED NEXT TO THE ADS ESTIMATED LIFT WHAT HAPPENED BECAUSE OF THEM MEASURED AGAINST A HOLDOUT OFF BY A FACTOR OF THREE, IN HALF THE STUDIES WHAT HAPPENED NEXT TO THE ADS ESTIMATED LIFT WHAT HAPPENED BECAUSE OF THEM MEASURED AGAINST A HOLDOUT OFF BY A FACTOR OF THREE, IN HALF THE STUDIES
Proven · 15 campaigns, ~500M observations, randomised tests as ground truth
Next · what comes back
Act ten · what comes back

Everything comes back at three speeds. Two of them decide anything.

Attention
Same day
Clicks, views, cost per thousand, frequency, likes. Mine to watch, and useful for explaining a result. It never decides one.
Memory
Weeks to months
Branded search and direct traffic. How the market treats the name after the work has been running. Slow, and it moves in one direction.
Money
The sales cycle plus the learning
What a new customer costs, on a mature cohort, out of your own server. The slowest one, and the only one that pays rent.

Attention is not a third answer, it is the explanation of the other two. It moves the same day, it can be bought, and it can look excellent while the business gets nothing. So it gets watched and it never decides. What decides is what the market pays you, and what the market remembers you for.

Same rule for everything else: reported conversions in a fresh account’s first 45 days, attribution software on its own, and the first 100 to 150 leads while the event is still learning. A ratio cannot pay rent, and a low cost on a small order beats a fair cost on a big one only on paper.

How to get new customers.
How to impact the market.

One reading each, on every map, from the launch to month six.

·47.2
The number
What a new customer costs, read against the target line. Counted where the return lives, on your own server.
Market impact
Branded search and direct traffic against time, on their own line, on every map. How the market treats the name after the work has been running.

I hold the arc to both.

Next · the money
Act eleven · the money

$8,000 USD a month.

Inside it

  • The size-up, the account read, the read of your numbers, the target, the offer constructions.
  • The market digs, the three roads, the two kills, the idea, the rulebook.
  • The wiring, the event, the gauge and the map.
  • The arc: every piece, every page, the emails, the launch and the run.
  • The desk, the log, the readings, the monthly decks and the re-brief at six.
  • My judgment and the whole pod. Creative count and destination count never cost extra.

Outside it

  • The fuel, on your own number, paid to the platform on your own card. Quoted as two figures before anything is signed: what measuring costs and what hunting costs.
  • Taxes.
  • Nothing else. No setup fee, no percentage of the fuel, no cut of anything.

Never priced per result. A number computed after the fact can be argued into any shape, and paying per result pays for customers who were coming anyway.

What lands, and when

  • A page the day you pay, with everything I need from you listed on it, and the money said once.
  • One email per stage, numbered against eleven, so your inbox becomes the record of the work rather than a thread you have to manage.
  • A deck per stage: what was done, what it means, what is next. Rendered from your own file every time, never written from scratch, so it cannot drift from the numbers.
  • A group thread for the quick decisions and for the Monday line.
  • The map, in every deck from the launch on.
  • The desk’s log, visible to you, with the response times in it.
  • The written pieces behind each stage, so you learn what is being done while it is being done.
Next · the way in
Act twelve · the way in

What happens after you send the DM.

01
The DM
I read it and decide whether there is a call. No calendar link and no form, because the first filter is me.
02
The call
About an hour. Every question I need, recorded, so nothing gets remembered wrong later.
03
The rest by email
Then I wait for your answers. The numbers matter more than the speed.
04
The size-up
The fee. The fuel worked on your own number, as two figures. The road with A and B dated. One line of what I would do.
05
The proposal
Then I wait again, because this is a six month decision and nobody should make it on a call.

None of the reading happens before money. No access, no assets, no idea. Before A everything is vague by design, and nothing is promised as done.

Ramin Karimi Ramin Karimi
At full capacity

Three seats, forty five days between builds. The door is a DM.

@iamraminkarimi→
Ramin Karimi
Campaign Director
ORCAS
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